
Working for a financial software company, I'm often struck by
how fast things are changing. Financial innovations come in many
shapes and sizes from many different places, but for the most part
they all follow a general trend: they turn physical processes into
digital ones. The so-called "payments
revolution" has often made me wonder what will happen when
innovation manages to displace the most physical aspect of finance,
cash.
In the financial technology world, cash is so uncool that hardly
anyone talks about it anymore. The alternative to a mobile payment
is a debit card, and the alternative to a debit card is a prepaid
card. ATMs get a shout out every once in a while, but that 3-letter
acronym comes up less often than either
P2P or
RDC.
Perhaps that's because most of us believe, at least partially,
that cash is on its way out.
Michael Woodford, one of the world's preeminent monetary
economists and author of a paper called "Monetary Policy in a World
Without Money," put it this way:
"It is possible to imagine that in
the coming century the development of electronic payments systems
could not only substitute for the use of currency in transactions,
but also eliminate any advantage of clearing payments through
accounts held at the central bank." (Interest and Prices,
2003).
That's economist for "At some point, there will be no cash." The
idea makes sense; I use my debit card for almost everything, and
when I need to repay a friend or split the bill, I prefer to send
P2P payments from my mobile banking app. I really only keep cash in
my wallet for two reasons: the local bar and the bagel place on the
corner. Even most food trucks in my area use Square. That said,
we're still a ways out from totally getting rid of the nasty green
paper.
When I imagine a cashless future, I foresee three things:
1) Technology will make things a little easier.
When they were first introduced in the 1970s, ATMs
were a huge leap forward. Consumers could save time they previously
spent visiting the branch to withdraw cash. They could choose to
withdraw more frequently and feel safer carrying less cash in their
pockets. The spread of credit, then debit, and now prepaid cards
has had the same effect. Like most participants in the financial
technology space, I'm absolutely gaga about mobile payments, and
can't wait until I can leave the house with only my mobile phone.
It's also easy to imagine how advancements in cyber-security will
gradually reduce the risk of identity theft. No hassle, no wallet,
no risk - what a world that will be.
2) Banks will consolidate - or evolve.
Right now, many of the features that banks compete on, including
ATM networks, branch networks, free checks, and early "cashless"
technologies like P2P payments, will, in a totally cashless
economy, become moot points. As money moves to the cloud, locality
will matter less and less, and community financial institutions
sheltered by brick-and-mortar monopolies will face competition from
every corner of the country. Hundreds of banks have closed or
merged with national banks since the financial crisis, and the
onward marching wave of technological change will only continue to
whittle down the list of U.S. financial institutions. The ones that
fail to adopt the latest mobile and online technologies will go
first.
As I see it, the banks of the future will live or die on the
success of two things: their lending strategy and the quality of
their customer experience. Evaluating the risk and return of loans
and investments will continue to be difficult long after cash is
gone. As it is today, some banks will be better at it than others.
If they can collect more from loans, they will be able to offer
more on deposit accounts and attract customers away from
competitive institutions.
By customer experience, I don't mean the ease of withdrawing or
depositing money. In a cashless economy, neither of those
transactions will take place. Instead, I predict that institutions
will partner or expand to offer a wider range of financial
services, such as brokerage, insurance, and financial planning
under one roof or rather, on one website.
3) The popular notion of money will change
I am most curious to see what will happen to the idea of
money in a cashless future. When I say money, the first image
that probably comes to mind is a green dollar bill, and most people
conceive of money as a limited, concrete asset like gold that we
chase around and fight over and trade for things like food and
shoes. Money is actually a bit more complicated, and its supply has
as much to do with credit as it does with the US Treasury printing
press. (When you hear, "The Fed is printing money," what it's
actually doing is manipulating the banking system into lending and
borrowing a little more.) In a cashless economy, how will we
talk about money? Will our movies still feature the symbolic
suitcase full of 100 dollar bills? Will central bankers and policy
wonks still talk about "
the money supply"? Will we spend more with nothing
tangible to hold onto or will we spend less when every transaction
is digitially traceable (I'm thinking about
PFM here)? I'm not sure.
A cashless future may be a long way off, but I genuinely believe
that I could be living in it before I die. I'm only 22, so that's
about 60 years. 60 years ago, Walt founded Disney, Walton founded
Wal-Mart, and most of the banks on Wall Street were already decades
old. Perhaps its time to start preparing.